Source: WindWande
April 30thUpcomingweb3gamesAfter rising for six consecutive trading days, the Hang Seng Index rose slightly by 0% as of press day.Upcomingweb3games.23%. It is worth mentioning that Hong Kong stocks maintained a volatile trend in the first half of April and rebounded strongly in the second half of April. Since April 22, the Hang Seng Index has risen 8.80% on the 5th.
/ / the recent upward momentum of Hong Kong stocks is strong.
On the whole, compared with the performance of US stocks, A shares and Hong Kong stocks, Ping an Securities said that although Hong Kong stocks rose the smallest since the beginning of the year, they had the strongest momentum. From the perspective of performance fundamentals, although the performance of Hong Kong stocks in the 2023 annual report is divided by industry performance, on the whole, the net profit and cash flow of most industries are positive compared with the same period last year, and the performance fundamentals of Hong Kong stocks still have some support.
From the perspective of domestic macro economy, on April 30th, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that in April, the PMI of China's manufacturing industry was 50.4%, which was in the expansion range for two consecutive months, and the manufacturing industry continued to recover; in April, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 51.2%, still higher than the critical point, and the non-manufacturing industry continued to expand. In April, the composite PMI output index was 51.7%, down 1.0 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the expansion of production and business activities of Chinese enterprises has slowed down. In addition, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on April 27th, from January to March, the total profits of industrial enterprises above the national scale reached 1.50553 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.3 percent over the same period last year. Overall, the profits of industrial enterprises maintained a trend of growth in the first quarter.
In addition, it is worth noting that according to the latest report of the Institute of International Finance (IIF), net foreign purchases of Chinese stocks and bonds reached US $1.7 billion and US $2.1 billion respectively in March 2024, the first time that Chinese stocks and bonds have been bought by foreign investors at the same time since June last year.
/ / still at the bottom of the valuation configuration window has reached / /
Judging from the current forward-looking PE of the Hong Kong stock market, Tianfeng Securities Research report shows that as of April 26, the 12-month forward PE of the Hang Seng Index is at about 15% of the 2019 historical quantile; the Hang Seng Index relative to the MSCI global index forward PE is at about 8% since 2019; the Hang Seng Index equity risk premium is 0.2% below the historical median and is at about 26%. At the same time, the valuation of some leading companies in Hong Kong's heavy Internet sector is historically low. The current PE of Tencent, Ali, Meituan and Kuaishou is 16.2,8.7,13.4,7.4 respectively, which is still significantly lower than that of US stock leaders, and the performance price of core assets is relatively high.
For the reasons behind the recent upward trend of Hong Kong stocks, Ping an Securities believes that the core driving force comes from the improvement of capital. At the same time, policies have been actively introduced to help the development of Hong Kong stocks, as well as the fundamentals of Hong Kong stock performance. Looking back, as the current round of funds into Hong Kong stocks or mainly trading funds, its hedging, trading purpose is stronger, mainly in order to avoid the recent pullback risk of US stocks and Japanese stocks, whether the follow-up continuous inflow depends on the relief of external pressure. On the other hand, domestic momentum still needs to be further restored. On the whole, the capital side of Hong Kong stocks has improved, policies have been actively introduced, and the stack of Hong Kong stocks is still at the bottom of the valuation. The institution believes that the window for the allocation of Hong Kong stocks has arrived. In terms of plate, pay attention to the three main lines of dividend + going out to sea + Internet.
Tianfeng Securities recommends to pay attention to the follow-up foreign capital inflows, as well as the growth value and revaluation opportunities of Internet platforms, new consumption, new power targets.